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Oil and Politics | The Reader

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OIL: FUTURE AND PAST

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The Montreal Review, May, 2010

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There is nothing original in the conclusion that oil is critically important for the national security of every country. Its importance will last as long as the industrial states continue to use it as a basic source of energy. The oil is even more important for the so-called "rentier" absolutist states and regimes in the Middle East, Africa, and Central Asia. Yet the consent among political and energy analysts who argue that the renewable sources of energy will replace oil is growing.

The reason for the inevitable decline in consumption of oil is not in its increasing scarcity, nor in its abundance. Complex of factors - political, economic, and environmental - will cause the replacement of oil with new sources of energy. The strong environmental lobbies in alliance with the media and public pressure over politicians and business organizations would accelerate this change. The danger of global warming and the volatility of oil prices will push ahead technological development and the green revolution will happen perhaps in the next fifty years.

 

Today oil has bad reputation. It evokes notions about war, colonialism, greed, corruption, price speculation and ecological catastrophes. This reputation is justified by the history of oil ascendance. Oil has always been connected with conflict and power politics.

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The Montreal Review Reader offers a look at the old visions. In 1927, in the daybreak of oil dominance, Albert D. Brokaw predicted with old imperial frankness that in the 20th century the world will be divided between the two superpowers controlling the oil deposits:

"The first [ North American oil region] is under control of the United States; in the second [Gulf-Caribbean region] the ownership of concessions is divided between British and American interests; while the third [Black Sea-Caspian region] is largely within the British sphere of influence. Thus, it seems that even though the rates of production in the various countries change substantially it is likely that the world situation will be dominated by America or Great Britain, especially as Britain and America are the dominant financial powers of the world and the oil industry is firmly intrenched in each. As a result Britain or America, or both together, will have to do with oil development in one country after another, as the focus of operations shifts from time to time; one or both will be involved in legal and diplomatic tangles that may arise, and the extent of their cooperation and the fairness they show will determine to a large extent whether the control of the world's oil supply shall be in the interests of peace or of war. If England and America should support opposing factions in some weaker country, each working to give the control of the local oil supply to its own nationals, the possibilities for trouble would be very real. Each country may count on receiving support from its nationals on the plea that oil is necessary for national defense, even though the controversy may be fundamentally one of commercial competition rather than a matter of national defense.

No doubt America will feel no small irritation when she is no No doubt America will feel no small irritation when she is no longer able to supply her own demands from domestic production, and when this moment comes the control of foreign sources of supply may become a popular issue in American politics...

...It seems almost as inevitable as the operation of a biological law that the world's oil resources must be developed to supply the world's demands without much reference to political boundaries and ownership of the deposits. The possibilities of accomplishing this without serious international difficulties rest largely upon the shoulders of Great Britain and America. If they accept their dominance as a quasi-trust under which they shall deal justly and reasonably both with the producing nations and the consuming nations, whether they be large or small, strong or weak, trouble can be avoided, but deviation from the course of fairness and justice will be attended with grave danger."

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Sources: Oil, Albert D. Brokaw, Foreign Affairs, Vol. 6, No. 1 (Oct., 1927), pp. 89-105, Council on Foreign Relations

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